College of Science

UROC Students Published in Journal of Risk Analysis

In Summer 2019, two UROC students, Christina Magana-Ramirez ( Mathematics and Statistics Department, CSUMB) and Jenelle Frej (Mathematics Department, Hartnell), worked on a research project under the mentorship of Dr. Steven Kim and Dr. Jeffrey Wand.

The research team proposed new statistical models for hormesis (i.e., a low dose of a toxic agent may have a lower risk than the risk at the zero dose). The new models require weaker assumptions than traditional parametric models, and simulation studies showed that the new models perform better (i.e., higher statistical power without increasing the chance of a false alarm for hormesis) particularly when the true dose-response relationship cannot be accurately described by specific mathematical structures. In addition, the research team simulated experimental designs under the new models, and they showed how to achieve a higher statistical power with a smaller number of animals being sacrificed in an experiment. This research addressed both statistical and ethical concerns in animal-based chemical risk assessment.

After a one-year process of peer-review, the paper was accepted to the Journal of Risk Analysis in August, 2020. The title of the paper is "Logistic Regression Models with Unspecified Low Dose-Response Relationships and Experimental Designs for Hormesis Studies."